Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Predictions

As Fred has pointed out the Iowa Caucuses aren't as much about desire as they are about turnout. Taking that into consideration, here are my prognostications for tonight's folderol.

Democrats
Clinton, Edwards, Obama. In that order but close enough to throw a blanket over.

Kucinich has told his supporters to go with Obama on a second ballot if they can't cover the 15% minimum. If Bill Richardson is smart enough to push his support to Clinton on the second ballot it puts her squarely in front.

UPDATE 1120: It looks
as if Richardson may try to blunt Edwards' finish by throwing support behind Obama on the second ballot.

Edwards has organization left over from 2004 that should be able to beat newcomer Obama at GOTV.

Nobody drops out until after next week. Weather is looking good for New Hampshire. Turnout should be good. Everybody stays. Everybody plays.

Republicans
Huckabee makes good use of the church-lady turnout machine to beat Romney by 5%. These two are double digits beyond the field.

The next four shake out in pairs. McCain and Paul beat Giuliani and Thompson by about as much as Huckabee beats McCain.

If Thompson scores fewer than 8% he packs it up and throws his meager support to McCain. Paul makes another fund-push and trounces Giuliani in New Hampshire. Rudy packs it in next Wednesday morning and tries to burnish the image of his consultancies enough to support his lifestyle. The word "hubris" makes a comeback.

1 comment:

Walton said...

Your (Huffington's) update should be interesting to watch since Richardson's campaign is now denying this.